Mid-Atlantic Region Faces Impacts From Climate Change
According To EPA Study Led By Penn State Researcher
January 16, 2001
University Park, Pa. — Floods, hurricanes, heat waves, and blizzards are constant reminders of how weather affects people and their welfare. These phenomena and more subtle changes in overall climate can have detrimental effects on the economy and environment.

According to a study led by a Penn State researcher, it is possible that such weather extremes could to rise in intensity and variability over the next 30 to 100 years, and the changing climatic trend could moderately impact the economy and ecology of the mid-Atlantic region.

Dr. Ann Fisher, senior scientist and professor of environmental economics at Penn State, said during a recent interview on the University’s public broadcasting series "Take Note" that despite conflicting opinions on the scale of global climate change, there is significant evidence that some change will occur and have direct effects upon the region.

"There are still naysayers for the global climate change question, but substantial physics support the forecasting models," said Fisher, the principal investigator for the study "Preparing for a Changing Climate: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change" sponsored by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

"We know that the emissions of greenhouses gases are going to continue to warm the globe overall, and along with that warming, the physics indicate an intensification of the hydrologic cycle — which means more rainfall," she added. "So we’re going to have a warmer, wetter globe overall in the future."

Fisher’s work was initiated by the U.S. Global Change Research program, the first national study of the impacts of climate change. Part of that study was the Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment, which covers all of Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia, as well as parts of New Jersey, New York, and North Carolina that share common watershed systems.

Fisher noted that the average global temperature increased one degree Fahrenheit over the past century, while precipitation increased 10 percent. Climate forecast models indicate that as temperatures continue to rise, precipitation in the mid-Atlantic region could increase up to eight percent in the next 30 years — and significantly higher by the year 2100.

According to Fisher, these changes are enough to greatly enhance the extreme variability of the day-to-day weather experienced by the region, as well as affect the ecosystems and economic activities of the region.

"The good news for the mid-Atlantic region is that the economy in this area is going to be reasonably resilient to climate change," said Fisher. "The bad news is that there will be some sectors of the economy in some localized areas that will suffer while others will not seem to suffer very much. The other part of the bad news is that we’re going to have substantial impacts on ecosystems, which are already under stress."

Facing a particularly negative impact are coastal zones, including the Chesapeake Bay, the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, and the Delaware River basin. Ecosystems and coastal cities, including roads and other infrastructure, face the highest risks as a result of climate change, mainly because of existing human-influenced stress.

Inland areas will experience some positive impacts tempered by correlating negative effects. For example, corn, soybeans, and tobacco are likely to grow better in a warmer, wetter mid-Atlantic region. But impact on the economy for tobacco will be offset by tobacco growing even better elsewhere in the world — making it less competitive in the region.

Human health faces a similar paradox. Although the numbers are small, incidents of heat-related illness and death are likely to double over the next 30 to 50 years as temperatures rise. However, warmer winters should result in less cold stress and fewer people freezing to death in urban centers.

The best way to prepare for the global changes ahead, according to Fisher, is to reduce the current stresses placed upon the environment. This will help build resistence to the uncertain future stresses that lie ahead.

"If we are going to have more extreme weather events as a result of climate change, then we need to be more protective than we have been in the past," said Fisher. "Things like land-use and watershed management and protecting water sources are actions that we can take now that have a win-win outcome because they help alleviate the stresses that we know about today and make the region more resilient for the future."

The study can be accessed on the Web at http://www.essc.psu.edu/mara.

Contact: Tysen Kendig, Department of Public Information, (814) 865-7517 or tysen@psu.edu.