UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. — Climate projections indicate more warming will occur in the Northeast than other sections of the United States, and that has implications for corn crops and dairy farms in the region by 2050, researchers warn.
While rising temperatures are not likely to cause serious reductions in corn crops in the northern and central parts of the Northeast, they threaten corn yields in the southern reaches of the region, according to Heather Karsten, associate professor of crop production ecology in Penn State's College of Agricultural Sciences.
Farmers in places such as Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, will likely have to change their corn-growing strategies to succeed in the future, noted Karsten, whose research group analyzed potential effects of climate change on corn growth and development at three major dairy locations in the Northeast.
Using localized projected climate data from nine global climate models, researchers judged future corn-growing conditions at Syracuse, New York; State College, Pennsylvania; and Landisville, Pennsylvania. They calculated the number and timing of expected extreme heat days and crop water-deficit periods.
"If climate projections hold, it will threaten the dairy industry in Lancaster County," Karsten said. "Depending on which climate scenario occurs, we could see severe impacts on corn production in that major dairy area. Lancaster County is looking like it is going to experience more days with extreme temperature stress that will reduce corn yields."
The researchers' findings, which were published this month in PLOS One, suggest that farmers in Lancaster County may have to plant corn earlier and even use irrigation — as they now do in much of the Midwest — to maintain corn yields adequate to sustain dairy farms.
The analysis indicates that corn in the Northeast near the end of the 21st century will experience fewer spring and fall freezes, and a faster rate of growing-degree-day accumulation with a reduction in time required to reach maturity, explained lead researcher Rishi Prasad, assistant professor of crop, soil and environmental sciences, Auburn University, formerly a postdoctoral scholar at Penn State.