Among the likely effects of climate change, perhaps the one with the most potential to devastate human and natural communities is drought—not just a dry season or two, but a prolonged lack of rainfall over vast areas, lasting years or even decades.
Drought is already making itself felt in Europe, Australia, and the United States. Much of the American West and Southwest is several years into a deep drought, and by 2060 the Midwest is expected to experience conditions that rival the Dust Bowl. But it is developing countries that are suffering the most, with drought so severe that it has disrupted societies, spawned or worsened civil strife, and led to the forced migration of millions of people no longer able to find water or grow food in their homelands.
Penn State crop scientist Jonathan Lynch has spent his career exploring how to make crop plants better able to grow in dry, low-nutrient soils, as a way to fight the chronic food shortages that plague much of the world. He has never considered himself a climate-change scientist, but in recent years his work has taken on new urgency due to the global changes we’re seeing.
“If you’re a small farmer in Rwanda and you only have half an acre of land to feed your family, and your crops are only yielding ten percent of what they should because of drought and poor soil, that’s a serious problem,” says Lynch. “Right now there are about 850 million chronically hungry people on Earth. 850 million! Chronic malnutrition is the leading cause of childhood deaths in the Third World. It’s already a massive problem, and climate change has barely begun to sink its teeth into these agricultural systems yet.
“An important way to address this challenge is to develop plants that can tolerate these stresses.”